MLB: When bad teams are favored

For every great matchup on a given Major League Baseball day, there are two less appealing contests.


2008-08-13

For every great matchup on a given Major League Baseball day, there are two less appealing contests. In a bettor’s world, all of the games mean the same, so ignoring the likes of Cincinnati-Pittsburgh, or Baltimore-Cleveland can prove damaging to one’s bankroll. This is especially the case on days like Tuesday, when the Reds and Indians will be playing as favorites. It seems though that the public has taken notice, with more folks at Sportsbook.com betting the underdogs in early action. Though both games boast similar lines, they set up rather differently. Take a look.

In Pittsburgh, the Reds are favored for one reason: Edison Volquez. Oddsmakers are clearly giving Volquez the benefit of the doubt here, despite the fact that his club has dropped nine of its L10 games while the Pirates have played with heart over the past week. In fact, just yesterday, Pittsburgh rallied for three runs in the ninth inning to upend the heavily favored Mets in an afternoon contest at Shea. Ironically, Volquez’s own recent struggles have mirrored the teams, as he has been hit hard in his last three outings, allowing 15 runs in 15-1/3 innings. He has also lost twice to Pittsburgh in as many outings this season.

Also seemingly being ignored here is the fact that Cincinnati has been awful on the road at 21-36, while Pittsburgh has defended its home field well, going 32-26 thus far for +7.2 units.

Overall for the season, Pittsburgh leads the head-to-head series, 6-3, including 3-0 at home. Two of the wins came in the most recent matchups in early July, leading to a strong StatFox Super Situation for tonight’s game:

Play Against - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (CINCINNATI) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, a bad team (38% to 46%) playing a team with a losing record. (96-58 since 1997.) (62.3%, +46.8 units. Rating = 3*)

Game time for this contest is 7:10 PM ET. Cincinnati is a questionable -110 favorite, and the total is set at U8.5 -125.

In the other aforementioned contest, Cleveland hosts Baltimore and opened as a -125 favorite in the contest. The Indians have played better of late, winning four straight games. In fact, one more win tonight will match their season high winning streak. It remains to be seen whether or not its too early to start jumping back on this bandwagon. The Tribe remains 11-games under .500 and 12-1/2 games out of first in the A.L. Central Division, behind all four other teams.

Yesterday’s 13-8 win by Cleveland in the opening game of this series actually sets up Cleveland for a number of powerful trend scenarios. Here are a few of those:

BALTIMORE is 1-11 (-10.2 Units) against the money line after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more in a game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 3.3, OPPONENT 6.5 - (Rating = 1*)

CLEVELAND is 19-3 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in home games after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 6.7, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)

Tonight’s pitchers are a pair of left-handers in Garrett Olson for the O’s and Jeremy Sowers for the Indians. Neither pitcher warrants a whole lot of respect from oddsmakers and each averages less than 5-2/3 innings per start, so this one might wind up being determined in the late innings.

StatFox Edges: Pittsburgh, Cleveland

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