Baseball’s Worst Bet – The Yankees

For those wagering on baseball, the New York Yankees being a poor bet is foregone conclusion.


2007-06-01

For those MLB wagering on baseball, the New York Yankees being a poor bet is foregone conclusion. Always overvalued, the Bronx Bombers have not had a winning MLB wagering MLB regular season for its backers since 2001, the last time they went to the World Series. This year New York has sunk to new lows and could be in real trouble, finally making predictions of doom that have been around for about three seasons coming true. The Yankees have now lost 12 of last 17 and are a mind-boggling -23.6 units, easily the worst in baseball.

With the national media fixated on how many games New York is behind Boston, this is the least of there problems, now tied with Tampa Bay in the AL East cellar at 21-29. Some of the issues are obvious, while others need a little more looking into. The pitching problems have been the leading contributor to what ails Joe Torre’s club. Carl Pavano, now officially a complete bust, will require Tommy John ligament replacement surgery. He is not expected to return before late in the 2008 season. This is not the first Yankee pitcher to fail in the Big Apple, with Ed Whitson coming to mind. Mike Mussina started the season on the DL after being counter on heavily. The question is at 38 years old, how much can you really expect from Moose at this point of his career? Andy Pettitte has actually pitched beyond expectations with 2.58 ERA, yet is just 3-4. The young pitchers called up on of necessity have gotten hurt like Phillip Hughes and Jeff Karstens. If general manager Brian Cashman is to be blamed for anything it was keeping ineffective Kei Igawa on the roster. Having Roger Clemens will help the staff as a whole; unfortunately an overworked and not particularly talented bullpen will continue to cause problems.

The Yanks pen ERA is miserable 4.51, with nine losses in 15 decisions; they have been a major part of the team’s failures. The culprit is free passes, as New York’s relief corps has allowed 100 walks in 171 innings. Closing out games is no longer a sure thing with 37-year Mariano Rivera. Here it is in the last few days of May and Rivera has just three saves and an unfathomable 5.94 ERA. He is 1-3 and has allowed as many home runs as he has saves. New York has the highest blown save percentage in baseball only converting three of 13 attempts.
Most figured the Bronx Bombers line-up could bail them out of pitching mishaps and this has simply not been the case. The Yankees are averaging 5.2 runs a game, which is fourth in major league baseball, but also 4th in the American League. Since the first of May, New York as had 12 games in which they have scored three or fewer runs, hardly a dangerous line-up. With Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter having done their best to keep the Yankees afloat, Johnny Damon is hitting .265, with only a .360 on base percentage for a leadoff hitter, suffering from leg maladies. DH Jason Giambi has a grand total of 11 extra base hits, 2B Robinson Cano is batting .254 with OBP under .300 and RF Bobby Abreu is looking older with each at bat posting .233 average.

After years of domination in the AL East, the Yanks are 5-14, -17.7 units, where every team other then Boston is below .500. The bullpen problems and lack of clutch hitting has them 6-20 in games decided by three or less runs, including 2-10 in one run affairs. Take into consideration A-Rod saved them three times in April and this record would be that much worse. Two other signs point to trouble facing opponents. George Steinbrenner’s club is 3-9 against LH starters this season and will face a steady diet of them until they can prove otherwise. When taking on quality pitchers with a WHIP of 1.100 or better, they are 2-11 since the beginning of 2006.

Can New York become a better bet in the weeks and months ahead? Of course they can. Houston and Oakland are a couple of teams that were below .500 at Memorial Day in recent years that made the post-season. The bats can certainly heat up and if the starters can start pitching into the seventh inning or later, then the tired bullpen could develop a rhythm that could have them winning games again. The first goal has to be to get back to .500 as odd as that sounds for this storied franchise.

For now either playing against New York or passing is the best advice.

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